#7 USAspending.gov Analytics — Time Series Forecasting with Facebook’s Open Source Prophet Package

Gaining an Analytics Edge Using Federal Spending Open Data Series

Context

Introduction

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Loading The USASpending.gov Data

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Time Series Analytics — First Pass

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Time Series Analytics — Cleaning Up the Largest Outliers

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Time Series Analytics — Assessing Model Quality

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Time Series Analytics — Focus on a Federal Department (DHS)

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Daily $ Obligations Trend Line
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Yearly Seasonal Model (Daily Trend Multiplier)
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Daily Model (Daily Trend Multiplier)

Time Series Analytics — Monte Carlo Forecasting

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Time Series Analytics — Focus on Contractors

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Conclusion

Coming Attractions

Strategy, emerging technology, innovation, and management advisor https://www.primehookllc.com/about-us.html, https://www.american.edu/kogod/faculty/ulstrup.cfm

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