#7 USAspending.gov Analytics — Time Series Forecasting with Facebook’s Open Source Prophet Package

Gaining an Analytics Edge Using Federal Spending Open Data Series

Context

Introduction

Loading The USASpending.gov Data

Time Series Analytics — First Pass

Time Series Analytics — Cleaning Up the Largest Outliers

Time Series Analytics — Assessing Model Quality

Time Series Analytics — Focus on a Federal Department (DHS)

Daily $ Obligations Trend Line
Yearly Seasonal Model (Daily Trend Multiplier)
Daily Model (Daily Trend Multiplier)

Time Series Analytics — Monte Carlo Forecasting

Time Series Analytics — Focus on Contractors

Conclusion

Coming Attractions

Strategy, emerging technology, innovation, and management advisor https://www.primehookllc.com/about-us.html, https://www.american.edu/kogod/faculty/ulstrup.cfm

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